With the Fed's first hike now behind us, new data showing stronger growth, cooler inflation and a nearly stalled job market leaves a second rate increase far less certain.
- The September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed employers added just 29,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.
- Pay growth slowed to 3%, the slowest pace in about five years, a worrying sign for rental demand since renters can't move out on flat paychecks.
- Layoffs remain low, with weekly jobless claims still under 200,000, according to the BLS.
- The government's annual revisions from the Bureau of Economic Analysis cut July core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, from 3.3% to 3%, and August held at that level, though part of the change reflects a new way of measuring.
- GDP for 2nd quarter was upgraded to 2.2% from 1.5%, which was a larger revision than most economists expected.
- August spending jumped 0.9% while income rose just 0.2%, which pushed the saving rate to its lowest level since 2022 and left after-inflation take-home pay flat.
- Freddie Mac data shows the 30-year mortgage rate rose for a sixth straight week to 7.3%, its highest level since late 2023.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications fell 6% in a single week.
- Census Bureau figures show construction spending jumped almost 1%, driven mostly by data centers and renovations, while apartment construction spending barely moved.
For more information on the state of the U.S. Economy, including forecasts, watch all the episodes of the Economy Express series.
