Job Growth Momentum Slows Across Top Markets

Mirroring the national slowdown in multifamily development, metro-level employment growth also appears to be losing momentum. The top 10 metros for job creation added a combined 290,300 jobs in August, down from 349,400 jobs in July and 324,800 jobs in June, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Despite the monthly deceleration, labor market conditions remained stronger than a year ago across most major metros. Nine of the top 10 markets posted higher annual job gains than in August of last year, with Dallas being the only market to record fewer jobs on a year-over-year basis.

However, signs of cooling are becoming more widespread. Seven of the top 10 metros reported slower annual job growth compared to July's 12-month totals, collectively generating 56,100 fewer jobs than the previous month. The remaining three markets partially offset those declines, adding a combined 13,900 more jobs than in July.

Eight of last month’s top 10 job change markets returned in August with the Carolina markets of Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham replacing Texas’ Austin and Fort Worth among the top 10. New York continues to lead all markets, but The Big Apple’s gain of 50,300 jobs was well below July’s revised total of 85,300 new jobs. Houston and Los Angeles returned near the top of the list but Dallas and Phoenix each fell two spots to #6 and #7, respectively, as Minneapolis-St. Paul and Philadelphia moved into their previous spots.

As mentioned, Charlotte returned to the top 10 list at #8 with a gain of 21,400 jobs, while Salt Lake City slipped two spots to #9 and Raleigh/Durham rounded out the top 10.

Metro-level job gains for August’s top 10 markets totaled 290,300 new jobs, an improvement of 137,400 jobs from last August or an increase of about 90%. Additionally, the next 10 markets (#11 to #20) of RealPage’s top job gain markets saw total gains increase 55,400 jobs compared to last August to 150,800 new jobs, but they decreased 9,200 jobs from July.

Job losses continued but improved slightly in Washington, DC, Atlantic City and Virginia Beach, but losses steepened in Portland, OR, Atlanta and Indianapolis. A total of 40 of RealPage’s top 150 markets reported job losses for the year, seven more than last month. Job loss markets continue to be concentrated in the Midwest and South Atlantic regions.

Job Growth

Unlike the top job gain markets, which tend to be large in population and employment, smaller markets usually dominate the top markets for annual percentage change in employment. As we typically see, state capitals, college towns and resort or tourist destination cities dominate this list. Only six of July’s top job growth markets returned in August.

Baton Rouge, LA and Myrtle Beach, SC returned as the top two markets for job growth, tying for #1 with 3.2% expansion. Midland/Odessa, TX returned at #3 with growth slowing by 20 basis points (bps) from July to 2.4%. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR tied with newcomer Wichita, KS at #4, while returning Greenville-Spartanburg, SC slipped two spots to #6 with growth of 2.1%.

Worcester/Putnam, MA-CT jumped onto the top 10 list at #7, while fellow newcomer Huntsville, AL tied with Salt Lake City for #8 with employment growth of 1.8%. Raleigh/Durham joined both the top 10 job gain markets and job growth markets lists at #10 this month.

With the exception of Fayetteville, all the top 10 job growth markets had greater growth rates than one year ago. Baton Rouge and Worcester/Putnam swung from job losses one year ago to gains in August, resulting in jumps of 510 and 300 bps each. The remaining seven top 10 markets averaged increases of about 110 bps for the year.  

Compared to last month, all but four of the top 10 growth markets saw their growth rates decrease, with Myrtle Beach falling 100 bps and the remaining slowing markets falling 44 bps. Both Worcester/Putnam and Wichita, KS increased their growth rates by 50 bps to join the top 10 this month. The other two newcomers – Huntsville, AL and Raleigh/Durham – increased growth by 10 bps and 30 bps, respectively.

Outside of the top 10 growth markets, San Jose was the only market with an employment growth rate of 1.6%, followed by seven markets at 1.5% (including Charlotte, Las Vegas and Fort Worth) and only three markets at 1.4% growth (including Charleston and Minneapolis).

Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ saw the deepest loss at 3.1% (an improvement of 100 bps from last month), while job loss leaders Washington, DC and Portland, OR continued to have deep percentage decreases at 2% and 1.5%, respectively.

Ninety-one markets met or exceeded the U.S. average growth rate of 0.4% (not seasonally adjusted), 10 more than last month.

This post is part of a series analyzing employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For more on this data, read previous posts on Job Growth.