Top Job Gain Markets Strengthen as Declining Markets’ Losses Deepen
It appears that the economy is moving in two directions, depending on where you live.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ May data release, the top markets for annual job gains improved from their 12-month gains for April, while the markets losing the most jobs lost even more.
RealPage’s list of top 10 markets for job gains in May added a combined 217,100 jobs over the year, 56,100 more than the same group’s annual gains in April for an increase of nearly 35%. However, compared to one year ago, these 10 markets added about the same number of jobs as last May.
Nine of April’s top 10 job change markets returned from last month with New York and Las Vegas again at the top two. Houston replaced San Diego on May’s list, moving up to #4.
Meanwhile, the 10 markets with the most job reductions lost a total of 224,900 jobs over the year, a deterioration of 25,000 jobs from April. Compared to one year ago when these current bottom 10 markets added a combined 10,400 jobs, the turnaround is 235,300 jobs lost for the year (mainly due to Washington, DC’s Federal government cuts).
Regionally, there were some differences between winners and losers. Losses continued in the Midwest and Northeast, primarily. Job gains were more prevalent in Texas, the Carolinas and the Mountain West. California was bifurcated with job gains in the Bay Area and losses in the Southland (except for San Diego). South Florida had moderate gains in Miami, but losses in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. Additionally, Tallahassee, Tampa, Naples and Cape Coral-Fort Myers experienced job losses for the year as well.
Of the top 30 gaining markets, Texas, California and North Carolina had multiple markets (four or more) and New York, Nevada and Pennsylvania had at least two markets. Nine other states had one market each.
Unfortunately, California was also a leading state for the most job loss markets with four, followed by Florida and Michigan with three and Massachusetts, Oregon and Virginia with two. Fourteen other states (including DC) had one job loss market out of RealPage’s top 150 markets list.
Job Growth
Unlike the top job gain markets, which tend to be large in population and employment, smaller markets usually dominate the top markets for annual percentage change in employment. As we typically see, state capitals, college towns and resort or tourist destination cities dominate this list. Eight of April’s top job growth markets returned in May.
Last month’s #1 market – Atlantic City – rolled off the top 10 list in May as tourism and college towns again dominated the job growth list. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Myrtle Beach, SC and Las Vegas ranked in the top three, with Fresno, CA and Wilmington, NC tied for #4 and Baton Rouge, LA and Greenville/Spartanburg, SC tied for #6. Baton Rouge, in particular, is seeing a surge in energy-related Mining and Construction employment through May.
The larger metros of San Jose and Charlotte each made the top 10 job growth list in May and Fort Collins, CO tied with Charlotte with 1.4% annual growth. Las Vegas, San Jose and Charlotte were the only markets to appear on both the top job gains and top job growth lists.
Eight of the top 10 job growth markets had greater growth rates than one month ago, led by Myrtle Beach (+60 bps) and Greenville/Spartanburg (+50 bps). Growth slowed from last month in Wilmington (-40 bps) and Fort Collins -(30 bps) among the top 10. Compared to last May, only Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers (-60 bps) and Wilmington (-20 bps) had minor decreases. Six of the top 10 had annual job growth increases averaging 100 bps, while Baton Rouge and Fort Collins turned from employment losses averaging -1.8% to growth averaging 1.6%, increasing growth by at least 300 bps.
Outside of the top 10 growth markets, Raleigh/Durham, Reno, NV, Salt Lake City, Orlando, Austin and Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL comprised the next few markets with growth rates of 1.1% to 1.3%. Phoenix was the only other Top 10 job gain market among the top 20 for job growth percentages.
Not surprisingly, job loss leaders Washington, DC and Portland, OR had the largest percentage decreases (averaging -2.9% each) with smaller markets Toledo, OH, Lansing, MI, Eugene, OR, Fargo, ND and Providence-Warwick, RI also dropping from 1.2% to 2.0% in employment from last year.





