Episode 60: The latest data shows a cooling labor market, easing inflation, improving trade flows and a strengthening housing sector all unfolding at once.
- February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000, with 28,000 health‑care jobs lost due to a strike and 10,000 federal government jobs cut.
- Unemployment rate held at 4.4%, but long‑term unemployment rose, with average duration reaching 25.7 weeks, the longest since December 2021.
- Revisions turned December into a net job loss, with three of the last five months now showing payroll declines.
- Weekly jobless claims for the week-ending March 7 were 213,000, essentially unchanged; the four‑week average was 212,000, signaling slower hiring rather than rising layoffs.
- February CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year; core CPI increased 2.5%, edging closer to the Fed’s 2% target.
- January’s trade deficit narrowed to $54.5 billion, down from a revised $72.9 billion in December.
- February existing home sales increased 1.7% to 4.09 million annualized, with affordability at its best since March 2022 as the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.05%.
- Mortgage applications for the week-ending March 6 rose 3.2%.
For more information on the state of the U.S. Economy, including forecasts, watch all the episodes of the Economy Express series.
