Episode 57: Inflation eased as the trade deficit widened, housing cooled, and the Fed held rates steady amid a softening labor market.
- Weekly unemployment insurance claims held near recent levels. The four‑week moving average was just above 206,000 claims.
- GDP was revised up to a 4.4% annualized pace in 3rd quarter. Consumer spending rose 3.5% and private domestic demand increased 2.9%.
- The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in November, jumping nearly 95%, and is running about 4% higher year-over-year.
- Pending home sales fell 9.3% in December and were 3% lower than a year earlier, with declines across all regions.
- Mortgage applications dropped 8.5% in the latest weekly data, and refinancing fell 16%.
- Home prices rose 1.4% year-over-year in November, but real values declined due to higher inflation.
- Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.8% year over year in November, with a 0.2% monthly gain. Meanwhile, producer prices rose 0.5% in the month and 3% over the year.
- The Federal Reserve held its federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% and signaled a pause in further rate cuts.
For more information on the state of the U.S. Economy, including forecasts, watch all the episodes of the Economy Express series.
