Episode 50: The U.S. economy is navigating a tightrope. Growth is fragile, inflation isn’t cooling fast enough and consumers are cautiously hopeful.
- Inflation is warming up. Prices rose more in June than in May, driven by food and energy. Core inflation remains persistent, suggesting sticky underlying pressure.
- Producer prices didn’t budge overall, but goods got pricier while travel-related services dropped, reflecting uneven industry dynamics.
- Multifamily starts hit a 1.32 million annual rate, up 4.6% from May, but slightly lower than last year.
- Existing-home sales continued to fall. Prices remain high despite signs of softening demand and inventory gains.
- More people are applying for purchase loans, but refinancing is down as rates edge higher and loan amounts have declined.
- The labor market holds firm, but there are caution sign. Jobless claims are steady, but leading economic indicators are slipping. The Conference Board expects slower growth, but not a full recession.
- Sentiment is improving very slowly. Consumers are a bit more optimistic, but not overly confident.
- The Federal Reserve remains cautious. September could bring a shift in interest rates if inflation and job stability continue.
For more information on the state of the U.S. Economy, including forecasts, watch all the episodes of the Economy Express series.
