Most Apartment Markets Still Below Pre-Pandemic Occupancy

by Analytics Contributor
  Posted   April 16, 2025
  in   Occupancy Rates

While occupancy has firmed up considerably over the last year amid strong demand nationally, most major markets still posted occupancy rates below that of their pre-pandemic long-term norms as of 1st quarter 2025.

The U.S. recorded 1st quarter occupancy of 95%, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics. That rate ran slightly below the pre-COVID five-year average from 2015 to 2019 of 95.2%. Of the nation’s 50 largest apartment markets, about 60% (29 markets) posted 1st quarter occupancy below pre-COVID rates.

Bar graph showing 1Q 25 occupancy rates for various markets, most below 2015-2019 averages.

This deviation from the pre-pandemic norm varied widely across geographies. Generally, lower supplied markets have seen occupancy firm up over the recent past. Conversely, higher supplied Sun Belt markets have mostly posted occupancy weaker than their pre-pandemic norms. Most severely, Fort Worth (-200 basis points), Austin (-170 bps), Charlotte, Orlando and Nashville (all -150 bps) posted 1st quarter occupancy rates well below their averages from 2015 to 2019.

Bar chart comparing 1Q 2025 occupancy rates and 2015-2019 averages for Sun Belt markets.

Similarly, in the West region, most major markets posted occupancy below that of their pre-COVID norms. The only major West markets to post above average occupancy in 1st quarter were San Francisco (+80 bps), Anaheim/Orange County (+30 bps), Las Vegas (+30 bps) and San Jose (+20 bps). On the other hand, Salt Lake City and Phoenix are still more than 100 bps below their pre-pandemic occupancy norms.

Bar graph showing occupancy rates for various West markets in 1Q 2025 compared to the 2015-2019 average.

Across the more moderately supplied Midwest markets, occupancy is faring better compared to long-term norms. About 60% of the region’s major markets posted 1st quarter occupancy above average. Indianapolis posted the region’s most significant occupancy gain over the 2015 to 2019 average at 140 bps. Chicago and St. Louis also posted 1st quarter occupancy 100 bps above their pre-COVID norms. Minneapolis occupancy posted the widest delta, falling 190 bps below the market’s pre-pandemic norm. That could change soon, however, as Minneapolis apartment supply has fallen off notably in recent quarters.

Bar chart showing 1Q 2025 occupancy rates in Midwest markets, mostly above 2015-2019 averages.

The historically tight Northeast markets posted the most stable occupancy compared to long-term norms in 1st quarter, which is really no surprise given the general occupancy stability across these markets. Nearly every major Northeast market posted 1st quarter occupancy above that of their 2015 to 2019 averages, with the slight exception of Boston. Boston’s 1st quarter occupancy (95.7%) was a negligible 10 bps below its 2015 to 2019 average (95.8%).

Bar chart comparing Northeast market occupancy in Q1 2025 to pre-COVID averages for various cities.

Nationally, occupancy is forecasted to hold pace with its current rate, hovering at the effectively full mark of 95% throughout the remainder of 2025, though performance will vary by market.

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