A slowing-but-still-standing economy shows thinner margins, softer momentum, and a surprising spark from housing.
- GDP growth estimates slid to 1.2% recently, which was less than half of February’s projection, as consumer spending cooled and momentum faded.
- Wage growth was modest, price growth moderate, and overall sentiment cautious across most regions.
- Producer Price Index data surprised to the downside: wholesale inflation was soft, with core prices nearly flat; energy was the main source of upward pressure.
- The labor market remained stable but showed strain: jobless claims were low, yet continuing claims rose as displaced workers took longer to find new jobs.
- Industrial production weakened in March, and capacity utilization slipped further below its long‑run average.
- Housing delivered the strongest positive signal: mortgage applications jumped nearly 8%, with purchase applications up 10% and refinancing up 6%, more than 50% above last year.
- The 30‑year mortgage rate fell to 6.35%, helping lift pending home sales.
- Existing home sales remained historically slow for March, but the median price hit a record high, underscoring strong demand constrained by tight inventory.
For more information on the state of the U.S. Economy, including forecasts, watch all the episodes of the Economy Express series.
