Only Six Major Markets Managed Consistent Positive New Lease Trade-out Since 2023

New lease rate change, also called new lease trade-out, has been under pressure throughout the national supply wave over the last couple years. At the U.S. level, new leases were cut as much as 4.4% on an annual basis at the trough seen in late 2024, according to data from RealPage Market Analytics.

Across a small handful of major markets, however, new lease trade-out never turned negative. Those markets – Anaheim, Columbus, Kansas City, New York, Philadelphia and Virginia Beach – managed modest (and sometimes near-stagnant) growth to new leases while the nation at large was slashing rents.

All six of these markets hit their respective low points for new lease trade-out in the final months of 2024 when supply was peaking nationwide. Anaheim is the relative leader among this grouping as new lease trade-out bottomed out at 1.4%. (Austin and Denver, meanwhile, were slashing new leases roughly 10% at that time.) Columbus, Kansas City and New York managed new lease growth between 0.5% and 1% during that time. Philadelphia and Virginia Beach essentially posted no change to new leases in late 2024, which still made those markets national leaders for this metric.

These markets have generally received lower development interest in the last few years. Compared to the national inventory growth rate of 3% in calendar 2024, these markets mostly posted more modest apartment supply gains, allowing operators to realize more pricing power.

The exception to this list might be Columbus, where a steady supply wave has been cresting (and is not set to peak until late in 2025). Places like New York and Anaheim have seen comparatively low inventory growth rates, and both of those markets have yet to hit peak delivery volumes.