More Markets See Aggressive Inventory Growth in Recent Years

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During the first 15 quarters of the current cycle that began in 2010, only five of the top 50 apartments markets nationally recorded annual inventory expansion of 3.0% or more in one quarter. In each quarter since, there were at least five markets to see inventory growth reach the 3% mark or higher. Inventory growth above 3% in an annual period is considered fairly aggressive expansion for any market, and the jump in the number of markets clearing that bar coincided with annual completion volumes across the 50 largest U.S. markets reaching about 175,000 units in 4th quarter 2013. Completion volumes have only gone up, landing at about 260,000 units annually in 1st quarter 2019. For perspective, annual inventory growth across the top 50 markets has averaged 1.3% this cycle. The number of markets growing inventory 3.0% or more peaked in the second half of 2017, with 11 markets posting expansion rates at or above 3.0%. More recently, five of the largest 50 markets recorded annual net inventory growth of 3.0% or more: Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin (4.2%), Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia (4.0%), Dallas-Plano-Irving (3.3%), Denver-Aurora-Lakewood (3.2%) and Austin-Round Rock (3.0%). Annual inventory growth reached 3% or more in 22 quarters this cycle in Austin – the most of any market, followed by 21 quarters in Charlotte, 19 quarters in Raleigh/Durham and 17 quarters each in Nashville and San Antonio.