Texas Supply Volumes Set to Fade in 2026

Texas apartment supply volumes have been elevated in recent years, and that competition has led to lower occupancy rates, especially among properties still working through lease-up. But Texas supply volumes are fading and are expected to continue their downward slope in the near term.

Properties still in the lease-up phase aren’t included in the RealPage Market Analytics occupancy data. Instead, we focus on stabilized asset occupancy. These are properties that are past their initial lease-up phase, not undergoing renovations and consistently maintaining at least 85% occupancy for a fixed period. This approach ensures that the numbers aren’t skewed by properties that remain in the early stages of filling units.

That said, it’s important to recognize the reality operators face today: lease-up pressures are substantial, especially in markets inundated by supply. And that’s exactly what the data highlights.

Lease-up occupancy in many Texas markets is notably lower than the stabilized figures. This isn’t a sign of weak demand, but a reflection of the sheer volume of new supply hitting the market.

The gap between stabilized assets and those in initial lease up has been especially big in Austin and San Antonio. Occupancy in lease-up properties runs about 100 to 120 basis points lower than stabilized readings in Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth and Corpus Christi.

On the other hand, some Texas markets have seen limited new supply pressure, and thus lease-up rates are running essentially in line with stabilized occupancy showings in Lubbock, College Station, Midland, El Paso and McAllen.

Texas apartment supply volumes are scheduled to remain a hot topic for the next several months. But looking into deliveries set for 2026, completion tallies are slated to come down from the recent peak.

In the first three quarters of 2026, quarterly supply volumes are scheduled to average about 11,700 units. That is about half the quarterly completion volume of over 23,000 units that Texas averaged throughout much of 2024 and 2025.

As supply volumes fade, the prevailing narrative of oversupply may soon shift toward a more balanced supply-demand environment, provided demand holds steady.

For more information on apartment markets across Texas, including forecasts, watch the webcast Market Intelligence: Q4 Texas Update.