Record construction activity in the U.S. apartment market in 2022 will be fueled by several individual markets, with some key areas set to see big inventory increases.
Among the nation’s largest 50 apartment markets, inventory growth leaders are all located in the south or the west regions of the country. For the most part, these are the same markets that have already seen big completion volumes during the current building cycle, which started just after the end of the Great Recession.
Nashville and Austin are major apartment markets expecting the biggest inventory increases in 2022, with scheduled growth of nearly 7%.
Nashville
Nashville has already seen its existing base swell by 44% during this building cycle – ranking behind only Charlotte and Austin – and is now adding an additional 11,400 units in 2022. These new developments will swell the existing base by 6.8% in 2022. Still, Nashville has handled the rush of apartment supply well over the last decade, generating impressive absorption in 2021 and proving the market’s ability to produce demand. At the end of 2021, occupancy in this market was tight at 97.8%, registering a bit ahead of the U.S. norm and marking a recent high for the market.
Austin
With completions of roughly 18,400 units scheduled for 2022, Austin is slated to see one of the biggest volume of deliveries in the nation. The only markets with more completions scheduled for this year are Phoenix, New York and Los Angeles. This next wave of development in Austin comes after the market already gained over 86,000 units in the current building cycle, increasing the existing base here by 46.8% since 2010. Thus far, Austin has absorbed these hefty volumes very well. The market logged some of the nation’s biggest demand volumes in 2021 and occupancy ended up at 97.1% in December. While coming in a few ticks behind the national norm, that occupancy rate was one of Austin’s best historically and was up a notable 350 basis points (bps) over the course of the year.
Phoenix
More apartment supply is scheduled to complete in Phoenix in the coming year than in any other market in the nation, including typical delivery champions New York and Los Angeles. Over 21,600 units are slated to wrap up in Phoenix in 2022, increasing the existing base by 5.7%. This is expected even after the market already saw the completion of about 64,900 units in the current building cycle, increasing the existing base by 20.8% since 2010. Despite such aggressive building, the Phoenix apartment market has outperformed the national norm recently, generating sizable demand. At the end of 2021, occupancy in Phoenix hit at a recent high of 97.3%, up 120 bps for the year.
Charlotte
Charlotte has been the nation’s development powerhouse during the current building cycle, with over 51% of the market’s existing apartment stock completed since 2010. No other market in the nation has seen such prolific inventory growth during this cycle. On top of the more than 70,500 units completed here since 2010, Charlotte is expected to see delivery of another 9,000 or so units in 2022. This will increase the product base by another 4.3%. Like the other markets on this list, Charlotte has absorbed all the new apartment stock relatively well thus far. Charlotte apartment occupancy reached 97.1% in December, after climbing 160 bps in 2021.
