Next year’s expected leader for new apartment deliveries looks really familiar. Metro Dallas is scheduled to add 23,370 units, continuing its run at the top of the charts. Since this market cycle began at the start of 2010, Dallas completions so far have reached 69,000 or so apartments. The local new supply figure for the cycle jumps to roughly 83,000 units if you combine the Dallas and Fort Worth tallies.
We’re Still Not Done in Houston
At the next tier of activity in 2017, look for some 15,000 to 18,000 units to come on stream in Houston, New York and Washington, DC. That’s a notable block of product still on the way in Houston, given there haven’t been meaningful starts in the metro for quite a while. Product that was already in process when the energy sector faltered is very slowly plodding across the finish line. Developers don’t seem to be in any hurry to get more projects open in an area where there’s a flood of communities moving through initial lease-up, especially in Houston’s urban core neighborhoods.
Atlanta Makes a Move
Deliveries reaching approximately 10,000 to 14,000 units are on the way in Atlanta, Seattle, Denver, Los Angeles and Austin. The big shift in activity within this group occurs in Atlanta, where 2017’s scheduled new supply more than doubles the additions seen in 2016.
There’s a Race for the #10 Spot
With just under 9,000 units scheduled to finish, Orange County looks most likely to grab the #10 position for completions in 2017. However, Orange County’s expected inventory growth just barely edges ahead of the count of units targeted to finish across Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Miami, Nashville and Phoenix. In reality, then, whichever of these spots registers the fewest construction delays and really gets targeted deliveries wrapped up will take the final spot on the list of top 10 markets for new supply.
The newcomers to the apartment completions leaderboard for 2017 are Atlanta and Orange County, replacing Phoenix and San Antonio from 2016’s calculations.
For further insight into 2017’s apartment market outlook, join us Dec. 8 for a live webcast featuring RealPage’s Greg Willett, MPF YieldStar’s Jay Parsons and special guest Philip Martin of Waterton Property.